Prediction of suicidal behavior in clinical research by lifetime suicidal ideation and behavior ascertained by the electronic Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate whether lifetime suicidal ideation with intention to act and/or suicidal behaviors reported at baseline predict risk of prospectively reporting suicidal behavior during subsequent study participation. METHOD Data from studies using the electronic Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale (eC-SSRS) to prospectively monitor suicidal ideation and behaviors between September 2009 and May 2011 were analyzed. Studies included patients with major depressive disorder, insomnia, posttraumatic stress disorder, epilepsy, and fibromyalgia. Records for 35,224 eC-SSRS assessments were extracted. Incomplete assessments and eC-SSRS records from patients missing a baseline assessment or with no prospective follow-up assessments were excluded. Baseline lifetime eC-SSRS reports were categorized as negative (no lifetime ideation with intent to act or prior suicidal behavior) or positive (lifetime ideation with intent to act but no prior behavior, no ideation with intent to act but prior behavior, or both lifetime ideation with intent and prior behavior). RESULTS 3,776 patients completed a baseline and 1 or more follow-up assessments. The mean follow-up period was 64 days. Of patients with negative lifetime reports, 2.4% subsequently reported suicidal behavior during study participation, compared to 12.0% of patients with lifetime ideation with intent only (OR = 5.55; 95% CI, 2.65-11.59), 9.6% of patients with lifetime behavior only (OR = 4.33; 95% CI, 2.94-6.39), and 18.3% of patients with both (OR = 9.13; 95% CI, 6.47-12.88). Sensitivity and specificity of positive reports for identifying suicidal behaviors were 0.67 and 0.76, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Patients reporting lifetime suicidal ideation with intent to act and/or prior suicidal behavior at baseline are 4 to 9 times more likely to prospectively report suicidal behavior during study participation.